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In this update we focus on some of the positive developments on the economic and personal finance side. Obviously, people’s well-being is the most important thing but it is encouraging to see some of the support being offered by the Government to at least lessen the financial burden

The Government has taken immediate action in many areas, “Whatever it takes” has become the new mantra and large support packages to protect jobs and employees have been launched globally. Central Banks have quickly provided liquidity, supported Government Bond Markets and helped ease credit.

These interventions have helped support stock markets and we did see some significant upturns in the FTSE 100 and other markets globally on several days last week.

Whilst a lot of the detail is still to be worked out, it is good to see financial support for employees, self employed and businesses alike.

These support packages are only half the story. Health is the most important thing and if we see a peak in the number of new Coronavirus cases, this will encourage a return to economic and social normality. There are some encouraging signs that “social distancing” may be helping the cause but it is perhaps too early to see any definitive downward trends.

The key questions are “when will life return to normal?” and “when will stock markets and the economy recover?” It is in everyone’s interests for the markets and economy to recover quickly.

The forecasts unsurprisingly, show a contraction in economic growth in the first two quarters of 2020 BUT forecasts also show growth in quarter 3 (coming out of recession) and further growth in the final quarter. Although the economy overall is forecast to contract in 2020, it may not be as significant as might have been expected.

The key to any recovery will be employment and business solvency. If people keep their jobs and companies survive through a mixture of loans, grants and subsidies then there is the best chance that demand will return, and the economy and stock markets will start a new growth cycle. Sadly, there will, and already have been, job losses and some companies, perhaps already financially weak will not survive.

Historically, Bull Markets (going up) last longer than Bear Markets (going down). The fastest falling Bear market (after Coronavirus) in the last 40 years was in 1987 and it lasted for only 2 months. This is a fact rather than a prediction!

In summary it is important to remember the following:

  • Don’t rush into short term decisions
  • Your money is not 100% invested in shares so significant drops in the stock markets will not be fully reflective.
  • If you sell, you crystallise the losses and will miss out on the subsequent recovery
  • Diversified portfolios are constructed to help buffer you a little against downturns. They will also increase your chances of capturing a recovery early as things improve at different times in countries around the world.
  • Bear markets are shorter than bull markets
  • Remember why you are invested, and the profits made to-date
  • Shares have shown to have a good record of generating real returns over the long term
  • Stick to the plan. It might seem counter intuitive to do little or nothing with your investments at this time, but these are medium to long term investments and markets have always recovered in the past. We will advise you if any action is required.
  • Take a break from the TV and social media!

Investments carry risk. Their value (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For the reasons outlined above, don’t be concerned that we are not recommending changes to your portfolio. As always, we are here to help if needed so please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss your own particular circumstances.

Stay Well.

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Welcome to Revolution FS Ltd

We offer a comprehensive, professional financial planning service based around helping you to achieve your goals and ambitions for the future. We offer advice in the following areas:

  • Pension Planning
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